《宏观经济数据分析手册》是一本非常实用的经济学指南,旨在帮助读者理解和分析宏观经济数据,并从中获得洞见。作者通过清晰的解释和案例分析,使得读者能够掌握经济学的基础知识和数据分析技能,从而更好地理解经济现象。这本手册对于学习经济学和从事相关研究的人士来说是一本非常有价值的参考书。
宏观经济数据分析手册读后感第一篇
感觉就是笔者自己学习笔记的整理,像个字典,缺乏系统性,新入门可以当手册查。找了一下,没找到作者在资本市场实战的产品或者风评,看了作者的公众号,宏观数据的分析也就是随大流,口水话比较多,参考价值不大。希望作者以后的分析能有更多的干货,错也要错的有态度吧,不会错的话讲了也没用。
祝各位书友龙年大吉,学习有成。
宏观经济数据分析手册读后感第二篇
受益匪浅,宏观入门科普+分析,作者是红塔证券副总裁,就像前言里说的,作为财经院校的专硕导师,因为感到经济金融的研究生教育和实际的脱节,做此书。本书内容很多应该是以往研报直接搬运。主题上,自上而下,从GDP,工业企业数据分析,固定资产投资(制造业、基建、房地产)、社会消费、进出口、物价CPI社融PMI,外汇,财政四本账,做了统计口径的科普和案例分析,可以增长从整体上把握经济运行的能力。宏观研究的基础工作,是在宏观层面上预期差,并找到超预期或低于预期的逻辑和投资依据,实现盈利的关键就是市场重新定价的过程。另外,也是提高大类资产配置研判能力。但是,宏观预测,就像在站在山底看云遮雾罩的山顶,看不真切。但对入门者而言,形成自己的观点,并且想办法验证,才是最重要的。本书的最大价值就是给你验证判断的数据(结合统计局、央行、海关、外管局等等)。数据对于金融,就像地图对于战争,战争是艺术,但也是专业。
宏观经济数据分析手册读后感第三篇
书中对宏观经济指标的分析非常细致,如果结合《读懂中国经济:格局、周期和趋势》一书来看,不仅能够对常用指标,而且对中国经济的周期位置和长期趋势能够有一个更为全面的认识。 这本书不仅是介绍了常用指标,还分析了创新周期、猪周期、房地产周期等不同类型的经济周期,以及长期经济增长趋势,经济结构的演变规律,对中国经济的分析更有系统性。
目录 第一篇 中国经济运行的格局 第一章 研判中国宏观经济的框架和指标 ···················································2 一、宏观经济如何运转 ··········································································2 二、常用的中国宏观经济指标··································································5 第二章 GDP—综合测度中国经济 ·························································8 一、GDP如何统计 ···············································································8 二、中国GDP的规模、增速与结构 ························································10 三、容易混淆的GDP与GNI ·································································15 第三章 三大产业—认清中国经济的供给侧 ············································19 一、国民经济行业如何划分 ··································································19 二、稳定中国经济基本盘的第一产业 ·······················································21 三、第二产业成就中国全球制造业大国地位 ··············································26 四、成长中的服务业 ···········································································37 五、观察行业是否景气—采购经理指数(PMI) ······································48 第四章 三大需求—读懂中国经济的需求侧 ············································54 一、14亿人口汇聚起的消费力量 ····························································54 二、投资—中国经济增长中的“关键先生” ···········································64 三、认识全球第一贸易大国的进出口 ·······················································77 读懂中国经济 格局、周期与趋势 VIII 第五章 价格—观察中国经济的通胀水平 ···············································91 一、衡量社会总体价格水平的GDP平减指数·············································91 二、与日常生活息息相关的居民消费品价格 ··············································95 三、影响企业生产经营的工业生产者价格 ················································100 第六章 就业—关注中国经济的最大民生 ·············································104 一、就业情况的整体衡量 ····································································104 二、经济增长创造的城镇新增就业机会 ···················································107 三、反映劳动力闲置状况的指标—失业率 ·············································109 四、求人倍率与工资—衡量劳动力市场的供需情况 ·································111 五、城乡“二元”结构下的农民工就业 ···················································112 第七章 财政收支—看清政府的财政政策 ·············································114 一、“四本预算”揭示财政收支路径 ······················································114 二、从财政赤字变化观察财政风险 ·························································126 三、分税制下的地方政府债务问题 ·························································128 第八章 货币调控—理解央行的货币政策 ·············································134 一、货币政策的目标与工具 ·································································134 二、我国的货币政策转型 ····································································138 三、人民币汇率的决定 ·······································································148 第一篇小结 后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ··········································153 一、中国经济的基本格局 ····································································153 二、后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ······················································155 三、疫情“后遗症”带给中国经济的新挑战 ·············································158 第二篇 中国经济波动的周期 第九章 经济周期分析框架和中国经济增长的周期波动 ·······························162 一、什么是经济周期 ··········································································162 目 录 IX 二、如何划分经济周期的阶段·······························································163 三、几种常见的经济周期 ····································································168 四、中国经济运行中的周期波动 ····························································171 第十章 农业周期—农产品供给和价格的规律性波动 ·······························175 一、气候变化与农作物生产 ·································································175 二、中国的猪周期波动 ·······································································180 第十一章 创新周期—科技革命和产业变革的发生规律 ····························186 一、科技和产业革命与创新周期 ····························································186 二、中国经济运行中的创新周期 ····························································195 三、创新周期下的能源转型 ·································································196 第十二章 房地产周期—房地产波动背后的驱动因素 ·······························199 一、人口与房地产周期 ·······································································199 二、人口因素影响下的中国房地产长周期 ················································203 三、房地产调控与房地产短周期波动 ······················································205 第十三章 设备投资周期—设备投资如何影响经济增长 ····························214 一、设备更新与设备投资周期·······························································214 二、中国的设备投资周期 ····································································217 第十四章 库存周期—存货变化与工业品价格短期波动 ····························224 一、企业存货管理与库存周期·······························································224 二、中国的库存周期 ··········································································226 三、库存周期与工业品价格、资源类周期股走势 ·······································231 第十五章 金融周期—流动性改变如何引发房价共振 ·······························235 一、信贷、资产价格与金融周期 ····························································235 二、中国的金融周期 ··········································································238 三、金融周期下的资产价格波动 ····························································247 读懂中国经济 格局、周期与趋势 第二篇小结 经济周期视角下的“十四五”时期中国经济走势 ······················249 一、中国经济运行的周期规律·······························································249 二、“十四五”时期中国经济的走势 ······················································252 三、防范化解影响我国经济平稳运行的内外部风险 ····································255 第三篇 中国经济增长的趋势 第十六章 经济增长的规律和动力机制 ···················································258 一、经济增长的一般规律 ····································································258 二、经济增长背后的动力机制·······························································261 第十七章 经济增长的不同阶段 ····························································266 一、经济增长阶段的划分 ····································································266 二、中国经济增长的二元经济阶段 ·························································270 第十八章 经济增长的动力分解 ····························································282 一、经济增长因素分解 ·······································································282 二、改革开放以来中国经济增长的动力 ···················································285 第十九章 经济增长中的产业结构变迁 ···················································296 一、经济增长过程中的产业结构演变 ······················································296 二、要素禀赋如何决定主导产业的发展 ···················································301 三、未来中国的产业发展之路·······························································307 第二十章 经济增长中的需求结构演变 ···················································316 一、经济增长过程中的需求结构变化 ······················································316 二、消费结构的长期变化规律·······························································321 三、消费升级与产业结构的调整 ····························································334 第二十一章 经济增长中的城乡结构变化 ················································337 一、城市化率的“S”形变化规律 ··························································337 目 录 二、中国改革开放以来的城镇化进程 ······················································339 三、城镇化与基础设施、住房投资前景 ···················································343 四、城镇化与未来的城市竞争·······························································348 第二十二章 经济增长中的收入分配结构变化 ··········································351 一、要素收入分配结构的变化规律 ·························································351 二、改革开放以来中国的要素收入分配结构演变 ·······································353 三、个人收入分配结构如何演变 ····························································355 四、中国的个人收入分配变化与壮大中等收入群体 ····································357 第二十三章 经济增长中的跨境贸易投资变化 ··········································362 一、对外贸易结构的变化规律·······························································362 二、中国从贸易大国走向贸易强国 ·························································367 三、跨境直接投资的变化规律·······························································372 四、中国直接投资从“引进来”到“走出去” ··········································374 第三篇小结 2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ······································380 一、定位长期经济增长中的中国经济 ······················································380 二、2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ··················································383 三、如何保障翻番目标的实现·······························································394 后记 ·······························································································399